What Would Social Security’s Insolvency Do to Old-Age Benefits?

Social Security benefits would not drop to $0, but they would be cut by 23 percent unless Congress acts

This post has been republished from Professor Patricia McCoy’s Substack. Her new book, “Sharing Risk: The Path to Economic Well-Being for All,” is available from The University of California Press.


In 2033, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will run out of money to pay old-age Social Security benefits. At that point, tax revenues will still be enough to pay 77 percent of monthly checks. But there will be a substantial benefits cut unless Congress takes action. If and when Congress sees fit to act, it will have to choose between higher payroll taxes on the top 6 percent or reforms that make lower-income retirees substantially worse off.

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